Looking Ahead to 2024: An Election Like no other.
American Democracy in Extremis
Americans, by the tens of millions, seem ready to trade American republican democracy for American populist authoritarianism, and 2024 may be decision time in America.
The election next November won't explicitly pit democracy against authoritarianism, but that's the choice tens of millions of Americans will knowingly go to the polls to decide. Although Joe Biden may not be the ideal avatar for American democracy in 2024, Donald Trump may very well be the poster boy for giving autocracy a chance.
I'm not referring to another clumsy January 6th, 2021, Trump-inspired coup-like grab, but rather an eyes-wide-open decision by tens of millions of our fellow citizens to vote for a sharp right turn toward anti-democratic Hungarian-style authoritarianism. No one should doubt what Donald Trump means when he tells his rally crowds that, when elected, he will be their retribution. We are heading into what might be the ugliest election in American history, to say nothing of the nasty period that could follow.
The contest next November will not be about different visions for America but rather about settling old scores and destroying political opponents. Assuming the two front runners are the candidates, which seems inevitable, neither candidate will acknowledge any redeeming quality about his opponent. It will be a hate fest, producing unprecedented dissension and political animosity throughout the nation. It will be a dangerous time in America.
Donald Trump isn't running against Joe Biden and the Democrats simply as political opponents but rather as national enemies, literally as “enemies of the people.” To Trump and his acolytes, the November election won't be a choice between political parties and their respective philosophies and visions for the future but rather a choice between real Americans and the enemies of the people—patriots against Marxists.
Far-fetched? Actually, no, it isn't. Clifford Young, who runs the US arm of the multi-national market research and consulting firm IPSOS, maintains that 40% to 50% of Republicans have an unbreakable bond with Donald Trump. They see the world and the nation through Trump's eyes, says Young. In other words, they internalize whatever Trump alleges about Joe Biden, the Democrats, the last presidential election, and "the unhinged prosecutor," Jack Smith, who they believe is committed to destroying Donald Trump. Another 20% of Republicans seem to hate Biden, admire Trump, and can't wait to change the direction of the country. If the election were held tomorrow, Biden would, at best, be holding on by his fingernails.
And given that Donald Trump is committed to the absurd proposition that he won the last election by a landslide ("and everybody knows it"), there is no way he is going to concede the next election regardless of how the vote turns out. The bigger the margin of a Biden victory at the polls, the more prominent the steal will have been, and the greater the outrage among Trump voters. We may, indeed, be in for a dangerous time.
The Republican Party no longer functions as an American political party in the usual sense of the term. Today, the GOP functions in the service of Donald Trump. The Party doesn't even go through the motions of producing a party platform anymore. Whatever Donald Trump wants IS the party platform. The vast majority of Republicans in the US House of Representatives are committed to the fiction that Trump won the last election and had it stolen away. They know it isn't true, but embracing the stolen election absurdity is the price of admission to Trump's World. They all believe that if they aren't in Trump's World, they can't win elected office as Republicans. Sadly, they are probably right.
The ramifications of the Trumpification of the Republican Party are serious, considering that a majority of the American electorate (Republicans and Democrats) have lost faith in our system for electing our national public figures. An NBC News poll conducted last summer found that 60 percent of Americans, including a third of Republicans, don't want to see a Trump candidacy again. Even more startling, 70 percent of the electorate doesn't want another Biden candidacy, including more than half of the voters identifying as Democrats.
Another reality roiling the election process is the constitutional question of Trump's eligibility to even run as a candidate for any federal office, let alone the presidency. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution states in part that "No person shall…hold any office…who, having previously taken an oath, … as an officer of the United States…to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.” Neither a trial nor a conviction is called for. The participation in an insurrection speaks for itself.
According to Politico, 51 percent of voters support Trump's disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. While the language in the 14th Amendment is abundantly clear, the ramifications of disqualifying Trump under the provision of the 14th Amendment, while legally sound, are almost too draconian to contemplate. Pursuing Trump's disqualification under the 14th Amendment could be akin to a procedural Fort Sumter. Nonetheless, the language is abundantly clear, and the Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to hold public office in the United States under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
J. Michael Luttig, Conservative legal scholar and former U.S. judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, had this to say about the 120-page Colorado Supreme Court decision. “The Colorado Supreme Court decision was over 120 pages, and I read every word of every page, and I understood every single word because I’ve studied the issue. The Colorado Supreme Court addressed every single state law question and every single federal constitutional question as to the meaning and interpretation of the 14th Amendment. I know for a fact that it resolved each and every one of those questions as required, not just under state law, but more importantly, under federal constitutional law. That’s why I said that the opinion is unassailable in every respect. It is a masterful judicial opinion, and based on the objective law of the 14th, I believe that the Supreme Court should — and I believe it will — affirm the Colorado Supreme Court if given the opportunity.”
An attempted insurrection took place in America on January 6th, 2021. It was a violent, organized attempt to stop the constitutionally mandated procedure of counting ballots that had been certified by all fifty states. People died in the melee, largely because Donald Trump exhorted the crowd to “fight like hell” when they reached the Capitol, or they wouldn't have a country anymore. Trump’s lawyers will postulate that January 6th wasn't an insurrection, and if the protest got out of hand, that wasn't Donald Trump's fault.
While Trump tucked in the word “peacefully” when urging the mob to march on the Capitol, he didn't create a get-out-of-jail-free card for himself. The mob may have marched to the Capitol peacefully, but when they arrived, they did precisely what the President urged them to do: “fight like hell” to interfere with the constitutionally mandated procedure of counting the ballots as the United States Constitution prescribes.
Removing Trump from the ballot in Colorado and Maine for being involved in an insurrection or giving aid or comfort to insurrectionists seems perfectly consistent with Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment of the United States Constitution. Donald Trump has become the poster boy for disqualification from federal office...any office.
The Republican Party is about to nominate an arguably ineligible candidate for the office of President of the United States. Indeed, we are about to bear witness to the most consequential election dispute in American history.
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Please consider our Of Thee I Sing 1776 Premium option. While my weekly column is always free, for just $5/month, you’ll also receive my annual ebook, “Essays For Our Time,” and my new Podcasts.
I don't know, Hal, I read the 12th Amendment, which describes the constitutionally-mandated election process. Turns out presidential elections include months of vote-challenging and politicking and don't necessarily close until March. January protests over congressional certification seem entirely proper. If you're defending capitol police who fired on unarmed protesters, are you standing up for democracy or autocracy?
I believe the majority of citizens do NOT want EITHER Trump nor Biden as our next president. I am supporting the No Labels movement - which will select one Republican and one Democrat to head a 'Unity' ticket in March. Yes, 3rd parties have not done well in the past, BUT 2024 is different as the 2 parties are going to nominate candidates that the majority do NOT want. Check out nolabels.org