Trump Likely to Win, but Will Claim Victory if he Loses

As a former pollster early in my career, I believe the odds favor Trump to win the election next month. If I were a betting man, I would bet that Trump would win on November 5th. Nonetheless, the writing is on the wall that the former President will contest the election and fight for the presidency should he lose.

Trump’s ground game should he lose the election.

Trump has already claimed, without evidence, that the fix is in to hand the election to Kamala Harris regardless of the outcome. He still insists that he won the 2020 election and that Biden was falsely installed as President through massive election fraud. While there is no evidence to suggest that any serious fraud was a factor in the last election, Trump is committed to the lie fable. He is incapable of admitting defeat. His claims of massive election fraud in America would be laughable if they were not so dangerous. Millions of voters have lost confidence in American elections because of Trump’s irresponsible attacks on the integrity of our elections. As the old saying goes, a lie can travel around the world before truth can get its pants on. Donald Trump understands this and uses this reality masterfully.

Trump has set the stage for turmoil by lying about the legitimacy of elections in key states and the reliability of mail-in votes and ballots submitted by absentee voters living abroad. He claims Harris can only win through cheating.

Trump seems paranoid about American elections. In Queeg-like fashion, he claims, “The only way they (Democrats) can do anything is if they cheat like hell, and we’ve been victims of that. We don’t need the votes; we want to make sure that they don’t cheat…Our primary focus is not to get out the vote, it’s to make sure they don’t cheat, because we have all the votes you need…If I lose - I’ll tell you what, it’s possible because they cheat. That’s the only way we’ll lose because they cheat.”

Trump has even claimed that Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 election was an illegal coup staged by Harris and that Harris is an illegal candidate. This nonsense serves no purpose other than to impugn the integrity of American elections. Because Biden dropped out of the election before the Democratic nominating convention, Harris’s nomination at the convention was perfectly appropriate. No election official, either Democratic or Republican, has questioned the legitimacy of Harris’s candidacy.

However, questioning the legitimacy of our elections seems to be the price of admission to Trump World. Trump, without evidence, claims that non-citizen voting is a widespread phenomenon in the United States. There is no evidence of such widespread fraud, even though Trump’s newest fan and conspiracy flame fanner, Elon Musk, has joined the ranks of Trump election deniers.

 “Our elections are bad, and a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they’re trying to get them to vote,” Trump insists. “They can’t even speak English. They don’t even know what country they’re in practically. And these people (democrats) are trying to get them to vote.” There is simply no evidence of this Trumpian claim, but Trump knows that if he blows enough smoke, millions will believe there must be fire.

As I wrote last week, both liberal and conservative think tanks agree that there is no basis for Trump’s claims of widespread voting by non-citizens. Even the right-wing Heritage Foundation has found less than 100 examples of non-citizens voting between 2002 and 2022.

Trump seems incapable of ever accepting defeat anytime or anywhere. He even claims he would have won the election in solidly democratic California if not for election fraud. In August, Trump declared, “If Jesus came down and was the vote counter, I would win California, okay?” Actually, Trump lost California (fair and square) by nearly 30 points.  

While Trump encourages his supporters to vote early, he simultaneously claims, without a shred of evidence, that the lag time between when an early vote is cast and election day is frequently used to manipulate the vote fraudulently.

Trump even claims that he won Minnesota in the 2020 election, but that cheating lost the election there to Biden. Minnesota hasn’t chosen a Republican for President since 1972, and it isn’t likely that voters there will embrace Trump in 2024.

Trump has also claimed, again without evidence, that fraud, especially mail-in voting fraud, is rampant in Pennsylvania. Republican and democratic election officials in Pennsylvania agree that there was no widespread voting fraud in the Keystone State.

There is no evidence of widespread fraud in American elections, and Trump’s claims to the contrary are a calumny against the country he is running to lead. Numerous recounts and audits in the states where Trump disputed election results have consistently reaffirmed that Biden won. Even Trump’s own Attorney General has affirmed that there was no evidence of widespread fraud.

The 2024 election promises to be a circus of claims and counterclaims of election skullduggery and efforts by both sides to impugn the integrity of the other side.

The RNC, now run by Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, says the Party is trying to counter Democratic mischief without identifying any such mischief.

The Trump campaign casts Democrats as nefarious operatives trying to undermine American elections. Listen to RNC spokeswoman Claire Zunk, “President Trump’s election integrity effort is dedicated to protecting every legal vote, mitigating threats to the voting process, and securing the election. While Democrats continue their election interference against President Trump and the American people, our operation is confronting their schemes and preparing for November.”

As might be expected, the Democrats also are casting themselves as the protectors of our elections. “For four years, Donald Trump and his MAGA allies have been scheming to sow distrust in our elections and undermine our democracy so they can cry foul when they lose,” Jen O’Malley Dillon, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign manager, said in a statement. “But also, for four years, Democrats have been preparing for this moment, and we are ready for anything.”

It’s circus time in America.

Novels by Hal Gershowitz